I am very afraid of what the next four years might bring ... As you can see from this graph, the likelihood of a recession in 2025 is slim. Other projections measure the probability of a recession ...

From the time the Great Recession started in late 2007 until ... flattened out considerably in the post–World War II years, as this chart from The New York Times illustrates: Generally, richer ...

but this chart includes a few years of data from its predecessor index.) The gray areas on the chart reflect periods when the U.S. economy was in a recession. Take a look at those gray areas.

The index's January performance has historically been a strong predictor of performance for the remainder of the calendar year. The New York Fed's recession probability model suggests there is ...

Note in this chart that, for over forty years, the recessions come after the ... the resolved yield curve does not cause the recession; instead, the resolved curve merely reflects market sentiment.

My economic analysis leads me to believe the U.S. economy will go into recession, possibly as soon as the third quarter of this year, but more likely slightly later. Given that recessions are ...

then a 2023 recession becomes less likely. However, growth in the first half of 2022 was negative setting up an easier year-on-year comparison so maybe any 2023 recession would be more likely in ...

Below is a graph showing the yield spread between ... really is since the economy historically averages a recession once every five years. One important effect of a sustained or long inverted ...

The chart below from the Detroit Free Press shows how Michigan's economy has effectively been in recession for six years. Michigan's GDP contracted in 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009 (2009 is not ...