That’s the highest estimate since the early 1980s, when a recession hit, and recessions have followed far lower levels of yield curve inversion. The model has a robust track record in calling ...

When the treasury bond yield curve inverts (and remains inverted for some time), the likelihood of the economy slipping into recession is high. A yield curve is a graph on which bonds are ...

The resolution of the inverted 10-year and 3-month yield curve usually signals a recession down range. Inflation expectations are reflected in the term premium, which has increased considerably ...

The event – commonly dubbed a yield curve inversion – was largely viewed as a signal the U.S. economy would likely slip into recession in the near future. An inverted yield curve occurs when ...

In this clip, Tipp discusses how to tell the difference between a healthy inverted curve and one that will lead to a recession. Following is a transcript of the video. Sara Silverstein ...

That would mirror the verdict of the inverted yield curve which has suggested a U.S. recession is more likely than not for the past 2 years. The Sahm rule forecasts recessions based on a 0.5% rise ...

An inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve has been seen as a recession warning sign for decades, and it looks like it’s about to light up again. WSJ’s Dion Rabouin explains why an inverted ...

In an email of his data, the yield curve’s slope turned negative 19 months ahead of the November 1973–March 1975 downturn and ...

Since the Fed tends to ease policy when the economy hits a snag, such disinversion has heightened investors’ concern about ...

"It makes the yield curve causal," Harvey said. "This causality channel is much different than in the past." And the inversion itself also isn't the final call on a recession, as experts have ...

A yield curve inversion, which occurred last week, often signals a recession is coming in the medium-term. Last week's yield curve inversion is different argues RBC Chief US economist Tom Porcelli.

The U.S. 2-/10-year slope inverted in mid-2022, and we are still waiting for the recession that was allegedly predicted by the yield curve. For those of us who are not yield curve maximalists ...