Weekly Treasury Simulation, Feb. 7, 2024: 2-Year/10-Year Spread Narrows To 0.20%
Treasury 2-year yields moved to 4.29% this week from 4.22% last week. At 10 years, this week’s yield is 4.49%, compared with ...
The Yield Curve Is Inverted—but There’s No Recession. What Gives?
The economist Robert Solow, who died in December, once said that everything reminded Milton Friedman, his fellow Nobel ...
US Yield Curve No Longer Inverted: Why This Time The Recession Scenario Might Be Different For Investors
Since the 1970s, every U.S. recession has been preceded by an inverted yield curve. The end of the inversion came in response ...
A More Commodious Curve
Through 2023 and 2024, the spread between bond yields and cash rates was persistently and sometimes deeply negative. Read ...
United States: What’s up with long-term rates?
And the rise in long-term rates further complicates the US budget equation, through the increased interest burden and their negative impact on growth, particularly through the real estate channel. The ...
JD Supra29d
What the Yield Curve Inversion and the Sahm Rule Signal: Key Implications for Company Valuations
When investors anticipate a slowing economy, they often demand higher returns on longer-term bonds, leading to an inverted yield curve. Historically, these inversions have frequently preceded ...
Forbes11mon
U.S. Recession Risk May Be Rising According To These Metrics
That would mirror the verdict of the inverted yield curve which has suggested a U.S. recession is more likely than not for the past 2 years. The Sahm rule forecasts recessions based on a 0.5% rise ...
Barron's8mon
U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Inverted For Record Period, Trend Remains For Now
The 2-10-year segment of the U.S. Treasury curve has been inverted for 482 business days, they said. The inversion reflects persistent delays to expectations of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts ...